Win rate calculator for traders
Your win rate on its own doesn't tell you much. Put in your wins, losses and average win and loss, and see the win rate you need to break even, what an average trade is worth, and whether you actually have an edge.
Average loss as a positive number. Leave the averages empty if you only want the win rate. Use R instead of dollars if you like, the maths is the same.
- Breakeven win rate
- 35.7%
- Reward to risk
- 1.80 : 1
- Expectancy per trade
- $68.00
- Profit factor
- 2.70
- Net result
- $1,360.00
On these numbers you have an edge: about $68.00 per trade. You'd still be profitable down to a 35.7% win rate, as long as your wins and losses stay this size.
Actal works out win rate, expectancy and profit factor from your platform's export, and splits them by setup, grade and mistake.
Journal for free →How to calculate win rate
breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
expectancy = (wins × average win − losses × average loss) ÷ total trades
Example: 12 wins and 8 losses is a 60% win rate. If your average win is $180 and your average loss is $100, you only need about 36% to break even, and an average trade is worth $68. That's an edge. Change the average win to $60 and the same 60% win rate loses money.
The win rate you need to break even
The bigger your wins are compared to your losses, the less often you need to win.
| Average win : average loss | Breakeven win rate |
|---|---|
| 0.5 : 1 | 66.7% |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% |
| 1.5 : 1 | 40.0% |
| 2 : 1 | 33.3% |
| 3 : 1 | 25.0% |
| 4 : 1 | 20.0% |
Before fees. Fees push every number in the right column up a little.
Why chasing a high win rate hurts
Almost every new trader I coach wants a higher win rate. The quickest way to get one is to take profits early and let losers run, and that's exactly how accounts die. You win often, you lose big, and the win rate looks great right up until it doesn't.
The better question is how you're executing. Split your win rate by how well you followed your plan. If your A trades win and pay, the setup works. If your win rate only looks good because of trades you weren't supposed to take, it won't last. That's why a journal that grades every trade on execution tells you more than a win rate ever will.
For the other side of the maths, work out how many contracts to trade with the position size calculator, or build your own tracker with the trading journal Excel guide.
Questions people ask
Import your trades and Actal shows win rate, expectancy and profit factor per setup, per grade and per mistake. Free during beta, no card.
Made by Joakim Jusell, futures trader and coach at Jusell Trading Academy.